Press Releases 2017

Toshiba entry earns top prize for forecasting accuracy, an increasingly important aspect of matching electricity supply to fluctuating load.

TOKYO, Oct. 30, 2017—With the growth of solar and wind power, matching electricity supply to fluctuating load has become increasingly challenging, so TEPCO just held its first-ever contest to find the best and most innovative ways to forecast load. The winner: An entry from Toshiba that found a way to overcome the inherent variability of seasonal changes.

TEPCO is looking to embrace the best and most innovative technologies to forecast load, and held this contest on its open innovation website TEPCO CUUSOO to generate new approaches it might be able to use. Participants competed to see who could most accurately forecast electricity load in the service area of TEPCO Power Grid, Inc. (TEPCO PG).

TEPCO PG provided past data on electricity load to participants, who then examined methods for forecasting load for the next 24 hours in one-hour units, and then used these methods for making actual forecasts. Preliminary results yielded nine considerably accurate methods and the creators of these methods then submitted video presentations for final judging. Six of these finalists were chosen as winners.

Toshiba’s winning entry addressed the problem of seasonal variability by using weather forecasts from multiple locations. The entry also employed ensemble learning to achieve even greater precision, impressing the judges with its ingenuity and potential. Other award-winning entries were:

Second Place: TESLA Asia Pacific, Ltd.
Third Place: Japan Meteorological Corporation
Presentation Award: Wataru Uda (Youworks Co., Ltd.)
Special Prize: CHIYODA Corporation
Special Prize: Japan Weather Association

More than 100 entries from companies, research institutions, and students from both within and outside of Japan were received, and approximately 40 percent of all entries came from overseas. Even though the contest had short time constraints and demanded that forecasts for the following day be made, just like the actual electricity load forecasts made by TEPCO, many highly accurate entries were submitted thereby resulting in a contest of a very high caliber.

The Head Judge of the contest, The University of Tokyo Project Associate Professor Yutaka Matsuo, praised the contest saying, "This contest provided a beneficial overview of the different methods that are possible. If these efforts continue to develop, it may be possible to recruit technical experts who will help TEPCO become the firm with the world’s most accurate forecasting. In that sense, the contest seems to hold great potential for the future."

Please visit the open innovation website for more detailed information on the contest results and judging.

https://cuusoo.com/projects/50136/challenges/result

<Attachment>  − The results of TEPCO’s first ‘Electricity Load Forecasting Technology Contest’(PDF 33.3KB)

About TEPCO
Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings, Inc. (TSE: 9501), headquartered in Tokyo, Japan, is the largest utility in Japan serving millions of homes and businesses. Worldwide the company has more than 34 subsidiaries and 32 affiliates in 8 countries and employs approximately 42,060 people. Consolidated revenue for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2017, totaled 5.3 trillion Japanese yen. The company was established in 1951 and is listed on the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. For more information visit http://www.tepco.co.jp/en/